Finishing strong. You hear the media talk about a team like the Braves or the Dodgers and they say "they haven't had much to play for these past couple weeks, and their not blowing away the competition; they're not finishing strong."
I honestly don't think there's much value in "finishing strong." A team that's on a hot streak could cool off any day, and a team that's not playing well could string a couple games together at the beginning of the postseason easily. Especially good teams like the Braves and the Dodgers.
However, there is something to be said for a team that looks relaxed and is not trying to do too much.
You can easily notice when a bunch of players are swinging out of their shoes. They refuse to work the count, they can't stay back on off-speed stuff. They're just dying to be that spark. A team that's relaxed and playing their own game at their own pace is in a good place. It's not much, but it's something, and it can dictate the direction of a few games for sure. I've seen it this season when the Bucs have gone on extended stretches without scoring. It happened earlier this month.
Why mention all this?
Because this paltry bit of analysis is the best I can provide going into the Wild Card game. Liriano's starting. Great. Cueto's starting. Not so great. The Pirates have home field. Great to see, but will have barely any effect on the game, despite what some people will say of Liriano's home/away splits (his worse ERA on the road is due entirely to the Milwaukee and Colorado meltdowns, his xFIP is almost identical home or away). It's very possible none of these facts will have any bearing on the outcome of the biggest game of the year for the Bucs. It's one game. Anything could happen. Anything.
And since there's basically no way to tell what will happen heading into Tuesday, the only thing I can say is that as I've watched the Pirates this past week, they look like a team that can play. They look competitive (not just cause they've won, but how; they've honestly played some nice fundamental baseball this past week and they look like a complete team). They have Grilli back, though he's not quite at 100% he's looked better this past week than he has in a while. Justin Wilson is back, a key part of the bullpen that we need in there. The rest of the bullpen has been holding strong, with extremely few red flags of late. Even Bryan Morris has pitched well of late. On the offensive side, McCutchen, Alvarez, Byrd, Morneau, and especially Neil Walker have been looking good. Starling Marte is healthy and back with the team and in the lineup every day. Probably the biggest red flag for the offense is Russell Martin, who still more than makes up for his nosediving OBP by dint of his defense. And then the starting pitching. Cole's been amazing lately. Morton's been very good (not his best start Saturday but with a wider lens he's been very good). A.J. holding up, he's not tiring at all. And of course Liriano is still as Liriano as he's been all year. On top of that, the defense has looked solid lately, with few errors, and a smart strategy that puts the defenders in the right places more often than not.
Any of this could change on Tuesday. Hot streaks, trends, and health can turn on a dime. But the point is, if you could draw up what you wanted the Pirates to look like heading into the post-season, this would just about be it. Their players are healthy, strong, and playing good baseball. It won't guarantee anything, but it's better than any of the alternatives. And with such a crapshoot coming up, that's all you can say.
The Pirates will play a competitive game on Tuesday in Pittsburgh. It'll be the first postseason game in the history of PNC Park.
Amazing.
After all that ado, let's review the last three games of the season. The first two of which guaranteed that the Wild Card game would be played in Pittsburgh, eliminating Scenario 1 from my last post.
27 September - Pirates 4 Reds 1 - Burnett vs. Bailey. Burnett was great. He had the Reds diving after his curve all night, they were helpless.
After a Marlon Byrd 2 RBI single in the 3rd and a Todd Frazier HR in the 4th, the score was 2-1.
Bailey, who had been laboring through 5 tough innings was brought out for the 6th. He was greeted by Marlon Byrd with a long double that was objectively the farthest you can hit a ball in that ballpark and not get a HR (the ball somehow hit a jutting corner at the top of the left center field wall, it was reviewed and rightly ruled a double).
Bailey dodged that bullet, but he wouldn't dodge the next.
Pedro Alvarez crushed a 2 run homer and the Bucs went up 4-1. Bailey was taken out before retiring a batter in the 6th.
Burnett continued his dominance of the Reds lineup through 8, and finished with a stellar line of 8 IP 1 ER 5 H 1 BB 6 K's. Jason Grilli entered in the 9th to rack up his 33rd and final save of the regular season.
Bucs win #92.
28 September - Pirates 8 Reds 3 - Morton vs. Arroyo. Both pitchers got a bit roughed up, one more than the other.
The Pirates launched 6 home runs this afternoon (5 of which were off Bronson Arroyo). Those six were, in order:
Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, Byrd, Lambo.
All solo shots except for Byrd's 2 run HR, which also knocked in Morneau. Lambo's, a pinch-hit homer, was the first of his career, and the only one off of a reliever.
The Reds fell behind early, but clawed back to a 3-2 lead against Morton in the 3rd, before falling victim to the Bucs' home run barrage.
Neither starter made it to the fifth.
The Pirate bullpen stepped up in a big way, with Mazzaro, Wilson, Watson, Melancon, and Morris combining for 4 2/3 scoreless innings. Big props to Mazzaro who got out of Morton's jam in the 5th, and Wilson who threw a scoreless inning despite not having his best control. Watson and Melancon did what we've come to expect and Morris pitched a nice 9th to end the ball game.
With win #93, the Pirates ensured the Wild Card game would be in Da Burgh.
29 September - Pirates 4 Reds 2 - Sunday's game was completely void of any meaning, as the NL playoff picture was entirely set, except for who would play the winner of the Wild Card game, which the Cards ensured would be them after completing their sweep of the Chicago Cubs to end the season.
At the end of last week, I guessed that in order to have a shot at the division the Bucs would have to go 5-1, and hope for the Cards to go 3-3. The Bucs actually nailed their part of the deal, but the Cardinals went 6-0. Such is the life of a team needing help.
The Bucs will have to do it themselves on Tuesday.
On Sunday, Brandon Cumpton won, Greg Reynolds lost, Jordy Mercer hit an inside the park HR (a line drive that an outfielder dove at and missed), and Garrett Jones also added a solo shot. Bucs tally #94, far exceeding my expectations from the beginning of the year.
I had them at 87 I think, and even I thought I was being optimistic.
The Bucs have had a great regular season. But there will be plenty of time to look back on it during the winter time.
For now, it's all about Tuesday night on the North Shore.
LET'S GO BUCS!
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