Monday, July 29, 2013

Man... I'm behind. Quick jump to the present

3 series I haven't properly posted. There were a few interesting games in there, I think I'll just focus on those and give the general feeling as we enter our big series with the Cards.

Lost 2 of 3 in Cincy. Lost the first two games, the second in heart breaking fashion (not just the 9th, but the whole game was heartbreaking). Salvaged the 3rd game thanks to a nice start from Locke coming back from his back injury which kept him from pitching in the All-Star game.

Landmark game: 20 July - Pirates 4 Reds 5

Won 3 of 4 in D.C. Morton pitched OK, we won 6-5 (and Grilli got hurt and eventually went to the DL - good win, but a costly one, hopefully we can manage until he's back - thank god for Mr. Melancon). Next day Cole pitched amazing, we won 5-1. Then Liriano pitched even more amazing, we won 4-2.

Then probably the most topsy-turvy crazy insane game happened. There were errors, ejections, a crazy comeback by the Bucs, but in the end it was an L thanks to a Bryce Harper walk-off HR.

Landmark game: 25 July - Pirates 7 Nationals 9

Lost 2 of 3 in Miami. I know Miami's been playing better of late and by all reasonable measures I should be more mad about the Cincy series but this series really grated. Lost the first game due to a missing offense with no excuses. Won the second. Then lost the third after an offensive outburst followed by offensive silence (which is a bit more excusable than the 1st game because in this one the very talented 20-year old phenom Jose Fernandez started opposite Cole, but still). The only consolation I take from this series is that while the Bucs lost 2 of 3 to the Fish, the Cards were being swept by the Braves, and the Reds lost 3 of 4 to the red hot Dodgers. No harm no foul I guess, but a nice little opportunity missed.

Coming out of the break the Pirates went 5-5 on their 10 game road trip. At that level, absolutely nothing to complain about. The Pirates' job right now is to stay competitive in the division, and playing 0.500 ball on the road is a great step toward that.

Now if the Pirates really want to make some strides toward a division title, well that's gonna take a bit more. Like winning more than they lose against the Cards and Reds the rest of the way.

Welcome to PNC, STL. We're 1.5 games back, and we're waiting for ya.

Saturday, July 20, 2013

The horror... the horror - 20 July 2013

Normally I'd wait until the end of the series to post, but damn. I need to get this off my chest.

That was one of the most horrificly terrible endings to a baseball game I've ever heard. Thank god, I was only listening on the radio. If I were watching I'd probably want to gouge my ears and eyes out.

Things were going wrong right and left all night. But never mind that, we can talk about the rest of the game tomorrow. All I want to talk about is the last 3 at bats of the game.

Here's the situation: Top of the 9th. Down by 1 run. Runners at 1st and 3rd. None out.

Russell Martin is up. He's been struggling mightily lately, but there's almost nothing he could do to fail to get the run in from 3rd. The Reds had their middle infield playing back. So pretty much any ground ball scores a run, even if it were a double play. Just have to avoid a strike out or popup.

1-1 pitch. Pop out to the second baseman. Grrr. That's frustrating. Would've loved to see him draw a deeper count in that situation too. But we still have two more cracks at this baby. Runner on 3rd and 1 out is still very good.

Here's the problem though. Jones is up. Jones has not been great for us this year. And he's facing a fellow lefty, Chapman. Harrison (ugh) and Snider (erm) both alrerady entered the game off the bench. This leaves us with three choices:

1) Leave in Jones.

2) Sub in McKenry.

3) Sub in Inge.

Jones has been miserable in his few at bats against lefties this year. 17 plate appearances. 1 hit. 9 strikeouts.

McKenry has been bad against lefties too even though he's a righty. I guess that's the price you pay as a backup catcher, fewer at bats to get in a groove, and as a result many fewer opportunities against lefties.
27 plate appearances. 4 hits (including a double). 6 strikeouts. 1 walk. 0.377 OPS (you read that right, that's his OPS against lefties this year).

Inge. Oh god Inge. Inge is not the guy you want up in this situation. But his numbers are actually the best (?!) of your options against lefties. This year: 36 plate appearances. 6 hits (including a double and a home run). 12 strikeouts. 0.457 OPS.

Not a lot to work with there as a manager.

Hurdle opts for McKenry, which is... fine. Given the other options, I don't know if it matters.

McKenry falls behind 1-2. Fouls off a pitch. Then he strikes out.

This makes everyone very unhappy.

Now our odds of winning this game have dropped dramatically. Needing a hit (or an error, or a couple walks, or something even more unlikely) to tie the game.

Mercer, who's had a good night, and an okay but not so great past couple weeks, is up.

Mercer strikes out. Chapman gets the save. The Reds win.

Chapman's a good pitcher. The Reds are a good team. This is in Cincy. This is only one game of 162. I get all that.

But what just transpired can't happen. I'm leaving the analysis for another time.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Taking 2 of 3 from the Mets

And just like that we're heading into the All-Star Break. Representing the Bucs are 2 hitters: Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen and 3 pitchers: Jeff Lock, Mark Melancon, and Jason Grilli.

Mets 2 Pirates 3 F/11 - There was some trepidation about Morton starting this game. He was shaky his last time out against a bad Cubs team. I credited that mostly due to bad luck and thought he might do better next time around. I mean the Mets are not powerhouses either, right?

Morton went 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K's. Good enough to keep the Pirates in the game for sure. Melancon, Grilli, Watson, Morris, and Mazzaro combined for 4 innings of shutout ball to keep the game tied at 2 through the 11th.

After two walks, one intentional, one unintentional, Mercer singled in Cutch to win the game. One of the more exciting games of the past couple weeks for sure.

One more thing, Pedro homered. Kinda nice retribution for not being picked by David Wright dontchthink?

Mets 2 Pirates 4 -  Burnett didn't pitch great, giving up 11 combined Hs and BBs. But he did record 8 Ks and kept the Bucs in the game, which is all you can ask for really.

Cutch was the offensive star of this one, which is great to see, because although he has been very good this year, we haven't seen "Cutch levels" of production thus far, and thus when nights like this become more frequent, you gotta be thinking that he's gonna explode sometime soon.

I don't believe in "momentum" when it comes to players and teams. However I do believe in the streakiness of hitting (or any other kind of probability - if you flip a coin that has a 3 in 10 chance of coming up heads, flip it long enough you're gonna get a significant streak of heads) and also in the psychology behind "seeing the ball well" and "feeling good" as a hitter. Sometimes things are just clicking as a hitter for whatever reason (could be that you're totally healthy, that the sun is in just the right place, that you've gotten a nice new pair of batting gloves, whatever, it doesn't matter).

The point is production tends to bunch up, and it's exciting to see if this is when it actually begins.

Cutch went 2-4, including a HR and an RBI single which gave the Bucs a 3-2 lead in the 7th.

Grilli held on and closed the door for the save.

Mets 4 Pirates 2 -  Too bad we didn't sweep this one, would've been nice going into the break and a bit of a make up for the recent shortcomings. But with this loss the Bucs enter the break having lost 6 of their last 10. The Pirates are 1 game back of the Cards in the Central.

About the game: Cole gave up 3 runs in the 1st but settled down enough to make it through 5 innings. Cole showed improvement last start but this was a step back. Nice to see him show that poise and hang in there though.

Cole took the first loss of his career as the Bucs weren't able to mount much offensively again. This time being held to a run by the likes of starter Dillon Gee.

The Pirates are 56-37. That's over 60%. This is pretty much the best case scenario for our record at the break if you asked me at the beginning of the year.

Keep it up Bucs.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

At Cubs and Vs A's - Losing 4 of 6 (and 4 straight)

Damn. Rough couple of series there. Anytime the Bucs lose a few in a row the tension among Bucco nations builds quite a bit. I suppose it won't stop being that way until they actually make the playoffs.

5 July - Pirates 6 Cubs 2 - You know that high ceiling that we all talked about when Liriano was acquired. Well, this wasn't quite it, but this was pretty damn close.

Liriano threw the first Pirate CG of the year. 9 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K's. Liriano threw 111 pitches in this one, and man is it nice to have a pitcher like this in your rotation.

Jeff Samardzija doesn't seem to scare the Pirates (or more accurately, the Pirate fans) anymore, he was touched up for 5 runs in in 6 IP in what I believe is his 3rd start of the year against the Pirates (and we'll probably see him at least once more before the season is out).

6 July - Pirates 1 Cubs 4 - Man, this game was a frustrating one. Facing Edwin Jackson who, though he does have the ability to throw the occasional gem now and then, has been pretty bad this year.

The Pirates just could not get to him. Missed opportunity after missed opportunity. As we will see, ineptitude with runners in scoring position will become a theme.

Right off the bat in the top of the 1st, Marte singled, stole a base, then advanced on a wild pitch to make it to 2rd base with one out. McCutchen and Jones, 2 of our 3 main RBI guys, were unable to get him home.

I went back and counted and the Pirates had a runner in scoring position in 5 different innings this game and failed to get that runner in all 5 times.

Morton didn't pitch great. He gave up two two-run HRs to Alfonso Soriano that pretty much sealed the deal given the Pirates offensive woes. I think he got a tad unlucky in this one but overall it was just one of those games where nothing much went right.

7 July - Pirates 3 Cubs 4 F/11 - God damnit I really wanted this game. I started watching in the 10th, after Marte's 9th inning solo HR to tie the game.

This was A.J. Burnett's first start coming back from the DL, and the Pirates were quite happy to have him back. I mean, Cumpton was fine but Burnett is better. Way better. It would've been great to get a win in his return but it was not to be.

The Pirates could not get anything going offensively in extras, as they only were able to get one baserunner when Jones reached on Darwin Barney's error which led off the 10th.

This game was a heartbreaker because you really wanted to see the Pirates com back and take a series against a not-so-great Cubs team after dropping a tough series to the Phillies at home. Oh well.

8 July - Athletics 2 Pirates 1 - The Pirates coughed up another loss here, wasting a very good outing from Jeff Locke, who turned in a solid 7 Innings: 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K's. I almost never pay attention to Pitcher Wins and Losses (and this is hard to do considering these stats are shown everywhere), but this was Locke's first loss in 17 starts. His only other loss this season game in his first start of the year during that unfortunate away sweep at the Dodgers. If nothing else, this is a testament to Locke's unbelievable consistency so far this year.

I've been a little tough on Locke, not from a personal standpoint though since I fucking love the guy - I rooted my head off for him this year when he started in Seattle against the M's. But from a statistical standpoint I've been very skeptical of him and his exceedingly low BABIP allowed.

Both he and Jeanmar Gomez have been great surprises this year, and I've heretofore posited that the vast majority of their success has been due to some fortunate aberrations in their favor on balls in play.

Basically, I've been thinking they're lucky.

Here's the thing about Locke though, the more I've watched him, the more I've been thinking that he has knack for inducing weak contact, which would explain how he's able to keep him BABIP down for longer that you'd originally think. He uses his Fastball-Curve-Change very intelligently (which may be a nod to the Pirates' catchers' nice pitch calling) and hitters just can't seem to hit the ball well off him.

Now this so far has been anecdotal evidence and a quick glance at his peripheral numbers still do not paint a pretty picture. 3.82 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 4.56 SIERA (this number is especially scary). I still think he will regress substantially, but what he has shown me over this incredible run of his is that there is quite a bit of real skill backing up his current numbers. I've seen it with my own eyes, both in person and on TV. He just does not give hitters much to work with.

How much of that will change when the coin flips start biasing more against him? That remains to be seen. But my prediction is that while he will regress quite a bit, I think his skill will prevent him from crashing and burning like the advanced metrics predict. I see him ending the year with an ERA around 2.90 - which is still fantastic.

I would like to avoid prophecizing (is that a word?) further at this time, and I think I want to so a more in depth analysis of his performance another time. Maybe I'll find some time to do some research during the All-Star break. By the way, Locke will join his fellow Pirates Grilli, Alvarez, and McCutchen at Shea Stadium Citi Field for the 2013 All-Star game. Pretty special, seeing as he was a complete unknown coming into this year.

Oh yeah, I was talking about a game, right? Sorry.

Long story short the Pirates couldn't do much against Bartolo Colon and took another loss.

9 July - Athletics 2 Pirates 1 - A similar storyline to yesterday and another 2-1 loss. This makes 3 straight one-run losses and 4 straight losses total. You could feel the panic during this game.

Crazily enough, Cole pitched well. In fact, this could have been Cole's best start of his young career. 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K's. The only runs he gave up were on a Brandon Moss 2-run HR in the 4th. It was the first time Cole made it through 7 innings, and the most heartening thing about this game was that Cole bucked an unfortunate trend where he would pitch pretty well for most of the game, but then lose a bit of gas at the end and get taken out with a few runners on base. Instead, he induced a fly out-fly out-ground out 3 up 3 down top of the 7th to round out his night. This Oakland team is 12th in OPS in the MLB so far this year at .721, so certainly a formidable opponent. All in all, a good night for Cole.

And he took the loss (I told you W-L doesn't mean anything!). Straily pitched 6 1/3 innings and only gave up one run, a solo HR to Pedro Alvarez.

This sucks.

One run games are like coin flips in some ways, which is a big reason why a lot of people thought the Orioles' crazy run last year was all luck. Well, you're seeing what regressions look like here, folks. Those 1-0 and 2-1 victories that the Pirates were riding to the top of the MLB a week or two ago? Yeah, it's just as easy to lose those games.

Man, we need some offense, quick.

10 July - Athletics 0 Pirates 5 - Now the main reason this is a two series post instead of the usual one series post is that I was just too busy to do the write-up after the Cubs series. I made sure to keep track of my thoughts through these games though to keep these write-ups more of an immediate reaction rather than a delayed retrospective. This post probably has a bit more retrospective than most, but I believe that failing is vindicated a bit, as I get to bookend this post with dominant Liriano starts.

Fuck, you know I've been talking about luck quite a bit. But this is a different kind of luck, that Liriano was able to grasp some of that vintage Liriano magic just as he joined the Pirates.

7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K's. 90 pitches. Wow.

The other great thing to see was the offense showing back up, as it has been known to do, after going AWOL for a handful of games. The 3 run 3rd inning was awesome. Alvarez went 2-4, McCutchen went 2-3, and Tabata, who's been a nice surprise since he returned from the DL, went 2-5.

We needed that.

Next up are the Mets. Last series before the All-Star break. Pedro Alvarez, who was not originally selected by captain David Wright has joined the NL HR Derby lineup in place of the injured Carlos Gonzalez. Good thing for Wright, because a Pedro-less Derby would mean he was going to get roasted by the Bucco faithful over the weekend.

Besides, Pedro deserves it.

Let's Go Bucs!

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Losing 2 of 3 to the Phils at home

This will be a short-ish post. I only caught bits and pieces of this series as I was spending time with my father for the holiday week.

2 July - Phillies 3 Pirates 1 - Cumpton and company were not enough to keep the streak going. It seemed at the start of this series that the streak could continue for at least a few games against a sub .500 team in the Phillies, but injuries have really put a hamper on the Bucs pitching of late, so that brings the probabilities down a bit.

The Pirates had a bases loaded opportunity in the 8th, erased when Mercer struck out against Phils reliever Justin De Fratus.

3 July - Phillies 5 Pirates 6 - Jeff Locke. Jeff Locke. Jeff Locke. Man do I love Jeff Locke. Locke didn't pitch his best this night, giving up 7 hits and 3 walks, and he was unable to get out of the 6th after a couple of singles, but he gave the Bucs a chance by only giving up 3 runs (2 earned).

Pedro hit a 3 run bomb which proved entirely necessary, as Grilli gave up a 2 run shot to Domonic Brown to cut the lead to 1. He recovered from that and finished off the save. Win #52.

4 July - Phillies 6 Pirates 4 - Sucks that the Pirates had to follow up a 9 game streak with a series loss but it happens.

Cole pitched about the same as he has been since he was called up. In fact he gave up the same number of hits and runs as last time, only he gave up 2 fewer walks and got 2 fewer outs.

Cole Hamels was the better Cole today, holding the Pirates to 2 runs over 7 IP.

The Pirates missed their big chance, again in the 8th, this time with Cutch up, runners at the corners and 1 out, down by 3. Cutch grounded into a double play, which halted the rally in its tracks. Earlier in that at-bat Cutch missed a ball middle in and up that he hammers when he's going right. Oh well.

Pirates head to Wrigley hoping to make up for this slight misstep. Here's hoping for at least 2 out of 3 there.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Sweep of the Brewers to end the 1st half

WHAT.

You know, I was thinking in the back of my head coming into this series, "the Bucs are playing pretty well, and the Brewers are lousy right now, they could sweep and get to 9 straight wins." But that would've been crazy, so I refused to indulge myself in that train of thought further.

So much for that.

28 June - Brewers 3 Pirates 10 - So the Pirates bats were on fire throughout most of their west coast swing. That fire was doused a bit by Felix Hernandez, but the Bucs went straight back to smashing mode their next opportunity.

Gerrit Cole started off the game with and extremely rocky top of the first, which included, but was not limited to:

1. A four pitch walk to start the game
2. A hit batter with the bases loaded
3. Four singles

A double play helped him eventually eke his way out, but the whole time you just sat there thinking Oh God, What If Something Is Wrong With Cole.

But Cole pulled himself together, and despite some control issues he managed to navigate through the sixth without allowing anymore runs. Thank god for that.

The other half of the story was the offensplosion that happened in the bottom of the second inning. The Pirates were relentless that inning, put balls into play everywhere, and took advantage of a costly Jean Segura error to plate 7 runs. Man, it musta been nice for Cole to emerge from the dugout in the third up 4 instead of down 3.

Also, poor Johnny Hellweg making his MLB debut there. Talk about getting thrown into the fire. A start on the road against the hottest team in the majors by far, and then to get shoddy defense on top of that. Just unfair.

Ryan Reid closed out the game with 3 scoreless frames to earn an "old school" save. W7

29 June - Brewers 1 Pirates 2 - The Pirates couldn't muster much this game against 27 year old starter Donovan Hand, but the two solo shots by Pedro and Garrett (Pedro's was a monster shot, bounced off a tree into the Allegheny) stood up.

Liriano turned in another Game Score 59 start (why am I only keeping track of this for him??), a respectable mark of consistency from a pitcher who's been anything but consistent for the bulk of his career.

Watson-Melancon-Grilli trio turned in a combined perfect 3 innings to end the game and get the Bucs the victory. W8

29 June - Brewers 1 Pirates 2 F/14 -  Unfortunately, I did not have the pleasure of watching this game, as I was at SafeCo field with my dad, taking in a 7-6 loss by the Mariners to the Cubs (It was 7-1, but the M's made it exciting!). However, due to the fact that the game was delayed and then inhumanely extended to the 14th, I was able to follow the game on my phone as I walked with my dad back home from the ballpark.

Morton was shelved after 2 IP due to the weather, and then the Vin Bizzaro ride continued as he put in FIVE PERFECT RELIEF INNINGS to get the game to the 7th.

The Pirates turned a 1-0 deficit in the 8th into a tie ballgame on a McCutchen single (what was I talking about with the offense outbursts earlier? I'm dumb. There's no such thing as being on "fire." I guess you just can't sustain that kind of hitting, even against the Brewers).

And so the score remained until the 14th (even through a bottom of the 13th 1 out situation in which Pedro GIDPed to the end the inning, much to my smartphone watching chagrin) until Russell Martin (who seems to have this knack for picking good spots to add some offense) hit a grounder up the middle scoring Gaby Sanchez.

It's impossible not to praise the bullpen here. But what is there to say about them that hasn't been said. The Shark Tank is dangerous and there's no two ways about it.

W9

51-30. That's 81 games. Halfway there. As an astute poster on bucsdugout said earlier: "51x2 = ??? No that can't be right. 51+51=??? No that's not right either."

At the moment I'm not troubling myself too much with what the Pirates will be like in September. Some forward thinking is good, but for the most part, as a fan, it's time to enjoy this ride and see how far it can take us.

All I know for sure is that the Pirates have 51 wins by the end of June. And for now that's enough. More than enough.

Welcome to PNC Park, Phillies. Good Luck.