The Nats did the Bucs no favors. If we're honest, the Bucs didn't do themselves many favors these past few weeks, so they certainly have no on to blame for losing out on the division but themselves.
But damn, the Nats couldn't get one measly game?
The Bucs took 2 of 3 in the last series at Wrigley. A decent result, but it's not gonna get it done with regard to the division. Let's take a look at the last two games of the series, after the Bucs clinched their playoff spot:
24 September - Pirates 8 Cubs 2 - It was nice to see Marte, McCutchen, Byrd, and Alvarez all have good nights. The Cubs trotted out lefty Chris Rusin, who was tagged and couldn't escape the 3rd.
Gerrit Cole was a tiny bit off relative to his recent stretch of fantastic performances, but was still good: 6 IP 2 ER 7 H 1 BB 6 K's. Cole also had probably the biggest hit of the day, a 2 run single with 2 outs in the 2nd to give the Bucs a 3-0 lead. Very reminiscent of the hit he had in his MLB Debut on June 11.
The story of the night was Cole's balancing act it in the bottom of the 6th. Two singles and a walk loaded the bases with nobody out. And then a Jordy Mercer committed an error that should've at least been one out.
So with the bases still loaded and nobody out, 1 run in, Cole had to step it up in a 6-2 game that was far from over.
Cole dug deep against Dioner Navarro, falling behind 3-0 he battled back for a clutch strikeout. Next he struck out Luis Valbuena on a 2-2 pitch. Finally, he got Donnie Murphy to fly out on a 1-0 pitch.
That rocky inning spelled the end of the night for him, but it was very impressive to see him step up and hold it together in the face of some adversity.
Overall a good win. Win #91.
25 September - Pirates 2 Cubs 4 - Before this game was over, the Reds had lost to the Mets, which meant that a Pirate win would set the Bucs up very nicely for the final series of the season, only having to win one of the three games to claim home field advantage for the Wild Card game.
Also before this game was over, the Cardinals completed their three game sweep of the Nationals, meaning that a Pirate loss would put the division elimination number for the Pirates at 1.
Francisco Liriano had an alright start, but he was struggling all afternoon. He only had one clean inning, and in all the rest he was dancing around baserunners and pulling a magnificent tight rope walk. Miraculously, the game was 1-1 heading into the bottom of the sixth (what's with the bottom of the 6th in Wrigley lately?)
Liriano put two runners on. His pitch count topped 100, so you just hoped he could get out of the 6th and then he'd be done. But Liriano grooved a pitch to Darnell McDonald (who I didn't even know was still in the majors until this series - I'll always remember him for pitching in that crazy extra inning game with the Red Sox and O's last year) which was deposited in left field bleachers for a 3 run homer. 4-1 Cubs.
As bad as the Cubs bullpen has looked this year, you'd think the Bucs could at least make a run at the 3 run lead, and they did, but it was too little too late, as Jose Tabata's 1 out triple in the 9th knocked in the Bucs' 2nd run of the game, but that's all they could get.
Normally you'd be satisfied with any winning series on the road, but the Bucs really needed to sweep the Cubs to have a fighting chance at the division, and that's even if the Cards didn't sweep the Nats. Now it would take a miracle, with the Bucs needing to sweep the Reds in Cincy (very tough to do), the Cards getting swept by the Cubs in St. Louis (flat out not going to happen), and the Bucs then winning a division champion play-off game. Fangraphs gives the Bucs a 0.4% chance of winning the division. So I suppose we can say goodnight to that.
This is disappointing, because I have been pulling for the Pirates to win the division all year. The Pirates have never finished 1st in the NL Central since its inception in 1994. Hell, this is the first time the Pirates have finished over .500 since the inception of the NL Central.
But we have to remember, what's the point of winning the division?
To get to the division series.
The Pirates can still do that. It's gonna take some work, and a lot of luck, but the Pirates can still do this.
In large part, this last series in Cincinnati is irrelevant. The winner of the series will have a very slight advantage in the Wild Card game with home field advantage, but a single game has so much variance that home field is pretty much meaningless except for the sentimental value and the ticket sales. It would be really nice for the city of Pittsburgh to see a playoff game, you'd hate for the Bucs to lose their first game back in the postseason after so many years, but you'd really hate for that one game to be on the road, and have PNC Park remain to see zero playoff games into next year. So here's my expectations and how I'd feel about certain outcomes, ignoring the exceedingly unlikely ones:
1. Pirates lose home field and lose the WC game in Cincy. BAD. This is the worst case scenario and would be a big disappointment.
2. Pirates win home field and lose the WC game in Pittsburgh. Not good, but I've always thought PNC would be a wonderful place for a playoff game. The atmosphere would be amazing, I have no doubt. It would be a disappointing outcome of course, but still would be great to watch.
3. The Pirates make the division series. GREAT. In this case, I don't care whether or not the Bucs hosted the WC game, because they'll be guaranteed at least one home game anyway, which will be super fun. And this is of course ignoring the best part, the Division Series! I would be glued to the television set, I'm gonna relish every moment of this series if it happens, I'm dying to see some competitive October baseball by the Bucs!
4. ???? Everything after the Division Series would be gravy. My goal for this team is to make one of the NLDSs, and then let's see what happens.
Let's do this.
But first, a stop in Cincy. Let's go Bucs.
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