Saturday, July 20, 2013

The horror... the horror - 20 July 2013

Normally I'd wait until the end of the series to post, but damn. I need to get this off my chest.

That was one of the most horrificly terrible endings to a baseball game I've ever heard. Thank god, I was only listening on the radio. If I were watching I'd probably want to gouge my ears and eyes out.

Things were going wrong right and left all night. But never mind that, we can talk about the rest of the game tomorrow. All I want to talk about is the last 3 at bats of the game.

Here's the situation: Top of the 9th. Down by 1 run. Runners at 1st and 3rd. None out.

Russell Martin is up. He's been struggling mightily lately, but there's almost nothing he could do to fail to get the run in from 3rd. The Reds had their middle infield playing back. So pretty much any ground ball scores a run, even if it were a double play. Just have to avoid a strike out or popup.

1-1 pitch. Pop out to the second baseman. Grrr. That's frustrating. Would've loved to see him draw a deeper count in that situation too. But we still have two more cracks at this baby. Runner on 3rd and 1 out is still very good.

Here's the problem though. Jones is up. Jones has not been great for us this year. And he's facing a fellow lefty, Chapman. Harrison (ugh) and Snider (erm) both alrerady entered the game off the bench. This leaves us with three choices:

1) Leave in Jones.

2) Sub in McKenry.

3) Sub in Inge.

Jones has been miserable in his few at bats against lefties this year. 17 plate appearances. 1 hit. 9 strikeouts.

McKenry has been bad against lefties too even though he's a righty. I guess that's the price you pay as a backup catcher, fewer at bats to get in a groove, and as a result many fewer opportunities against lefties.
27 plate appearances. 4 hits (including a double). 6 strikeouts. 1 walk. 0.377 OPS (you read that right, that's his OPS against lefties this year).

Inge. Oh god Inge. Inge is not the guy you want up in this situation. But his numbers are actually the best (?!) of your options against lefties. This year: 36 plate appearances. 6 hits (including a double and a home run). 12 strikeouts. 0.457 OPS.

Not a lot to work with there as a manager.

Hurdle opts for McKenry, which is... fine. Given the other options, I don't know if it matters.

McKenry falls behind 1-2. Fouls off a pitch. Then he strikes out.

This makes everyone very unhappy.

Now our odds of winning this game have dropped dramatically. Needing a hit (or an error, or a couple walks, or something even more unlikely) to tie the game.

Mercer, who's had a good night, and an okay but not so great past couple weeks, is up.

Mercer strikes out. Chapman gets the save. The Reds win.

Chapman's a good pitcher. The Reds are a good team. This is in Cincy. This is only one game of 162. I get all that.

But what just transpired can't happen. I'm leaving the analysis for another time.

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